Last week, Virginia’s prison system announced it had achieved a “best-in-class” recidivism rate.
Compared with 31 other states across the United States, Virginia announced the lowest rate of prisoners committing new crimes and returning into the prison system. Of the more than 12,000 individuals released from prison, 17.6% had returned to prison within three years, the Virginia Department of Corrections said.
“This achievement is a collective win, not just for the dedicated public servants who are devoted to this agency’s mission, but for all Virginians,” said Chad Dotson, director of the agency.
However, the achievement appears to be because of the effect of COVID-19 on Virginia’s court system, the department’s research team wrote in a note that was not mentioned in the agency’s news release.
At least three prisons have a 50% vacancy rate, with some so short-staffed that they have been incapable of complying with policies on safety, medical treatment and solitary confinement.
Virginia’s latest announcement looks at recidivism among former prisoners released between July 2020 and June 2021. The number looks only at individuals who returned to prison within three years of release, rather than individuals who were rearrested in that same time. The rearrest figure is higher — closer to 44% — but doesn’t qualify as recidivism in Virginia.
The state’s definition of recidivism means its recidivism rate is tied to the speed with which courts can deliver verdicts, and Virginia courtrooms were under emergency orders that slowed court proceedings until June 2022.
“Re-incarceration rates are lower during follow-up years impacted by COVID-19 due to court closures and sentencing delays,” the research team wrote in its report where it calculated the 17.6% figure.
Another metric also runs counter to the department’s rehabilitation success story: probation violations actually ticked up slightly for the same group of released individuals. Crime rates writ-large jumped nationwide in 2020 and 2021.
Still, Dotson credited the work of his agency for the low recidivism rate, saying that the agency provides effective evidence-based reentry services “every single day.”
“I thank everyone who has worked tirelessly to make this best-in-class recidivism rate possible,” Dotson said.
Dotson said the numbers also “align” with a plan announced by Gov. Glenn Youngkin to improve outcomes for the formerly incarcerated. That plan, outlined in an executive order, was announced in August 2024.
In a statement, prisons spokesperson Kyle Gibson acknowledged that recidivism rates dropped across the country because of the pandemic, but still carved out room for the prison system’s work on reentry.
“Recidivism rates were lower due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the VADOC cannot conclusively say that the pandemic was the sole cause of the lower rates,” Gibson said.
The announcement was picked up by at least five news outlets in Virginia and D.C., as well as Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares. In a post on X, Miyares wrote that recidivism rates support his tough-on-crime approach as the state’s top prosecutor.
“There’s two approaches to lower recidivism rates: hold violent repeat offenders accountable or let them out early,” Miyares wrote alongside a photo of the 17.6% figure.
“For four years, I’ve fought to put violent criminals behind bars, while leftist politicians demand leniency and reduced sentences,” Miyares said. “We see which approach works.”
All former prisoners who made up the low recidivist group were released more than a year before Miyares took office in 2022. Miyares’ office declined to comment for this story.
Virginia has seen a long, downward slope in its recidivism rate, which has slowly trended down from its highest of 24% in 2014. Virginia’s Department of Corrections often celebrates each new benchmark.
That reflex is common, said Will Pelfrey, a professor of criminal justice at Virginia Commonwealth University.
“State correctional systems rarely have good news to celebrate,” Pelfrey said.
Pelfrey flagged a pullback in policing as another reason the rate might have dipped to historic lows. Fewer door knocks, fewer street stops and fewer house visits by patrol officers led to fewer arrests, Pelfrey said.
“So there’s a blip, and it’s not a huge blip, but it probably changes the recidivism rates a little bit, and I think makes them a little lower for that period of time,” said Pelfrey.
Pelfrey said it would be good to announce the low recidivism rate “if it was connected to some specific programming.”
Kelly Orians, a professor of criminal justice at the University of Virginia School of Law, conducts that type of programming at Fluvanna Correctional Center for Women. Orians said she applauded Gov. Youngkin’s executive order last year, but said that in practice, little has changed.
“On a day-to-day level, we have not experienced any changes, any better access than we had before the executive order went into place,” Orians said.
She added that her clients report not having access to reentry programming at prisons across the commonwealth. Many facilities operate at critical short-staffing levels, according to an internal report conducted by consultants for the prison system. That report found that “very few” educational and rehabilitation programs were actually operational.
Recidivism rates become a political talking point, Orians said, while prison systems generally fail to look at whether the formerly incarcerated are actually succeeding in the real world. She said there really isn’t any prison system in the United States successfully ӽ紫ý that challenge.
“The best laid plans are really just that,” said Orians. “They fall apart very quickly once people are actually out on the streets.”
Shawn Weneta, who lobbies the Virginia legislature on prison policy and reform, called recidivism rates an “antiquated tool.”
“It’s simply a measure of failure, and the only sort of purpose that it serves anymore for Virginia is to be able to hold ourselves up against other states,” said Weneta. “We should be focused on success factors, some of which were outlined in Gov. Youngkin’s Executive Order 36 last year.”
